Twelve questions for 2012

Twelve questions looking for answers in 2012 …

•How quickly will Republicans pick a presidential candidate? A protracted struggle would mean Arkansans would cast a meaningful vote in the May primary, which doesn’t always happen. It also would mean President Obama could rest on the sidelines for a while and watch as the Republicans spend money and beat each other up.

•What impact will independent candidates have on the presidential race? If ever there were an election when someone outside the two main parties could shake things up, this is the year. The economy is weak, the national debt is rising and both the president and Republicans suffer dismal approval ratings. The right independent candidate, and there could be more than one, would force the major party nominees to talk about unpleasant subjects such as the national debt, a la Ross Perot in 1992.

•Will what happens in Europe stay in Europe? If the Old World can’t stabilize its shaky economies, the New World will feel the effects. It wouldn’t be the first time their problems became our problems.

•What will the Supreme Court decide about health care? Even a bad decision would be better than the lack of clarity we have now.

•Will Congress pass a highway bill? It’s two years late doing so, making it harder for agencies like the Arkansas Highway and Transportation Department to plan for the future. But signs point to Congress passing a bill early this year before the politics of the election season makes progress more difficult. That leads us to the next question.

•Will Arkansans vote to fund a $1.8 billion four-lane state roadway network in November? They did support a highway bond issue last November, but that didn’t cost voters extra money. The highway network would raise their sales taxes by half a cent. That’s a big difference.

•Will Republicans in Arkansas capture one or both houses of the state Legislature? They’ll need candidates to do it, but serving in the Legislature is a low-paying, time-consuming and relatively thankless job. Lots of good people would rather make better money while suffering a lot less hassle doing something else. Can’t say I blame them.

•How will public schools adapt to today’s changing needs and challenges? They are moving in the right direction fairly rapidly. The developing Common Core curriculum is more focused than what we have been using. Gov. Mike Beebe’s STEM Works initiative will encourage schools to improve instruction in science, technology, engineering and math. One result will be the proliferation of New Tech high schools that focus on project-based learning using technology. There are two such schools on opposite sides of the state, Cross County High in eastern Arkansas and Lincoln High in the northwest corner, but dozens are considering the move and have financial incentives to do so. But the status quo has a way of pushing back against change.

•How will Arkansas address its long-term budget challenges? It took the right step in 2011 by passing a prison reform bill that will save money while incarcerating fewer people. The downside: More bad guys will be walking the streets. More tough choices will be necessary. Medicaid costs are set to explode • not this year, according to the Beebe administration, but soon. The state’s teacher retirement system has made a lot of promises that are becoming harder to keep. It currently has $4.375 billion in unfunded liabilities that would take 66 years to pay off using its current assets. Many more teachers will retire during those 66 years. •Can Arkansas be both The Natural State and the natural gas state? What’s under that dirt is an incredible resource that employs a lot of people, burns cleaner than oil and reduces our dependence on oppressive regimes. Water, however, is an even more valuable resource. The natural gas industry and its defenders tell us not to worry about what could happen to our drinking water. I really want to believe them. We can make this work, but it will take effective government regulation. Yes, government regulation.

•Speaking of water, will the Army Corps of Engineers get the funding it needs to keep our rivers navigable? Its budget has been cut to the bone, which means it’s not doing much in Arkansas that it doesn’t absolutely have to. There’s this problem that bears watching in southeastern Arkansas. The Arkansas and White rivers are trying to join just before they flow into the Mississippi. That would shut down river commerce out of Arkansas and cost industry $30 million a day until it is fixed, which would take about four months. It’s not an imminent threat. It could become one.

•Lastly, will Gus Malzahn build a winner at Arkansas State? Major sports in Arkansas has always been about the Hogs and only the Hogs. Now Jonesboro has one of college football’s most sought-after coaches. This year, both Arkansas and A-State finished with 10-2 records. The Hogs play in the Cotton Bowl on Jan. 6 while the Red Wolves play in the GoDaddy.com Bowl on Jan. 8.

Will they play each other someday? That’s a question A-State supporters have been asking for a long time.

———-

Steve Brawner is an independent journalist in Arkansas.