A purely unscientific polling of state lawmakers showed a consensus on who the GOP presidential nominee will be.
No real surprise. Four members of the General Assembly expect Mitt Romney, former Massachusetts governor, to eventually earn the nod, but at least one, state Rep. Andrea Lea of Russellville, said she can envision an rare event.
Pointing out that some states have altered their primary dates and have been docked delegates by the National Republican Committee, and noting that Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul show no signs of quitting the race, Lea said the nominee might not be clear until the party’s convention.
“The two things combined make me think a brokered convention could happen,” she wrote in an e-mail.
That would, as they say, make for good television and it could open the door for a new candidate to jump in with both feet and save the day. A slugfest in prime time would be the most compelling political theater in recent history. Probably have to go back to a vice president shooting a guy in the face to equal it.
Independent reporting for Pine Bluff & Jefferson County since 1879.
Sen. Steve Harrelson, Democrat of Texarkana, agreed that Romney will likely win the nomination but he said that when the primary dust settles, the candidates left standing will have to work their way toward political middle ground.
“I believe that the candidate who captures the ‘center’ of the country will win this election,” he contended.
What is the political “center” these days? It’s probably a bit more rightward than it was a decade ago. What passes for “moderate” in this climate doesn’t always seem that tempered.
State Sen. Gilbert Baker of Conway suggested that Romney will earn the White House “because of his experience in the business world creating jobs.”
There’s no doubt that Romney has kept more than a few accountants employed, both here and abroad.
West Memphis Democrat Keith Ingram offered perhaps the most intriguing prediction — Romney at the head of the ticket with a familiar name, Mike Huckabee, former Arkansas governor, as his running mate. No matter whose names appear on the ballot, though, Ingram said Democratic strategist James Carville’s focus will carry the day again.
“As with most presidential elections, (this race) will turn on the economy,” he wrote.
Ingram is right. The economy is taking a back seat to no issue, and that’s not likely to change between now and November.
Will Arkansas voters pull a lever for Romney? Will his Mormonism open the door for the fiery Gingrich? It’s difficult to imagine Paul having a lot of traction, but stranger things have happened in Arkansas politics (see “Robinson, Tommy”).
At least Arkansas’ primary is toward the end of the calendar. Our little state might be in a position to be important, unlike the time when we outsmarted ourselves and moved our primary up, only to get caught up in an avalanche of votes, and then when the race got tight at the end, we were a long-gone afterthought.
So, if these esteemed legislators are correct, there’s not much need in going forward with any future primaries. (Or debates for that matter, please.) Let’s just call everything off, declare Romney the winner and get on to the next question: Will Paul run as an independent? If so, who would he siphon votes from, Romney or President Barack Obama, or both? Would he garner enough support to be a spoiler?
Lots of questions at this point. No answers we can hang a hat on. We’ll know soon enough who will be facing Obama. At this point, it seems like the president’s worst enemy is himself.
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Rick Fahr is publisher of the Log Cabin Democrat in Conway. His e-mail is rick.fahr@thecabin.net.