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Postal closure data is flawed

Santa Claus delivered a late Christmas present last week from the Postal Regulatory Commission. It seems, the oversight panel concluded, that the U.S. Postal Service depended on questionable data to identify the 3,654 post offices and other operations placed on a list to consider for closure.

The panel’s non-binding decision adds weight to arguments voiced by residents of a number of small Southeast Arkansas towns opposed to the closure of their local post offices.

Perhaps, some suggested, the Postal Service bosses threw darts at a map to pick the closure list. Closing a local post office is grounds in some rural areas for rebellion. The commission raised a number of questions about the Postal Service’s methodology in making decisions about a reduction in post offices. Postal officials were required by law to ask regulators for a formal opinion on the proposed closure plan. While the opinion is not binding, it carries weight with Congress, which has asked if so many closures are really necessary.

The Postal Service retreated under congressional pressure in mid-December, delaying any closures and consolidations until at least mid-May. That decision occurred before the oversight commission’s report was released.

It seems the Postal Service hopes pending legislation before Congress will help beef up the agency’s finances, which has been hemorrhaging red ink. Congressmen have argued the proposed closures would leave too many constituents without mail service, especially in rural areas. It helps that 2012 is an election year.

In many cases the selection process ignored whether an alternate post office was nearby and which closures would reduce costs the most and lacked sufficient data and analysis to make the best decisions, the Postal Regulatory Commission contended.

The Census Bureau’s 2010 population count, for example, reflects communities where more than 50 percent of the population qualify as AARP members. That age group sends letters, while younger postal customers sending more than 1,000 text messages a week seldom send letters.

As it attempts to counter sliding mail volume, the Postal Service announced plans in July to close about 3,600 of its 32,000 post offices. Another 600 to 700 closures was planned last year. Hundreds of stations and branches also could be shuttered to stem operating losses expected to hit $14.1 billion this year.

About 2,500 of the 3,654 sites targeted for possible closure will be replaced by a clerk in a local store, gas station, library or city hall in a new business model the Postal Service describes as a “village post office.”

Postal officials maintain their best candidates for closure were rural post offices that take in less than $27,000 in revenue each year and suburban and urban ones with less than $500,000. Some do just two hours of business a day.

The oversight commission consulted economists and other experts who contended that other factors should be considered: How many miles away is the nearest post office? Would closing deny service to large groups of customers, such as senior citizens, who would have trouble finding alternatives?

The Postal Service really does not know how much money the closures would save, the commission maintains, noting postal officials combine revenue from retail sales with day-to-day costs of operation. When financial records for several branches and stations are lumped together, it’s difficult to know which facility has lost the most money.

Although the Postal Service predicts the closings would save about $200 million annually, it has failed to provide revenue and expense information to back up the assertions.

Post offices, especially in rural areas, are cornerstones of communities. The oversight commission uses the same arguments voiced at public hearings held in South Arkansas: Postal closures require a thoughtful process based on facts, not guesses.