AMES, Iowa — Late in the run-up to Tuesday night’s Iowa Caucuses, support coalesced around Rick Santorum as the best alternative to eventual winner Mitt Romney, state political analysts said Wednesday.
But even as rival Michele Bachmann steps aside and Rick Perry considers his fifth-place finish in Iowa, it remains to be seen how or whether Santorum can capitalize going forward, they said.
“If you look at it, it’s really a tale of two campaigns,” said Dianne Bystrom, director of the Carrie Chapman Catt Center at Iowa State University.
Romney proved “he didn’t have to spend the … time or money like he did in 2008, and he still had a very strong showing, and will go on to do well in New Hampshire,” she said.
James McCormick, professor and chairman of ISU’s political science department and coordinator of two statewide pre-caucus polls, agreed.
Independent reporting for Pine Bluff & Jefferson County since 1879.
“I think the results show that Romney has a degree of entrenched support that helped him,” McCormick said. “Santorum engaged in the kind of classic, retail politics that the caucuses have been known for. And he capitalized on the rise and fall of other candidates, like Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich and Perry.”
McCormick said Santorum’s campaign and its press coverage were elements that may have tended to feed on each other.
“The endorsements that he got from (conservative Christian activists) Bob Vander Plaats and Chuck Hurley helped him, too,” McCormick said.
Many voters went to the caucuses undecided, McCormick said, and the indecision ultimately helped Santorum.
“This year, those people were out there really looking hard for someone who was not Romney, and they weren’t integrated that much with supporters of Ron Paul, who had a separate base of voters,” he said. “There were tea party members and evangelical voters who were looking for someone who appealed to them, and Santorum became that person.”
Bystrom said she thought President Barack Obama would be “very happy” about the caucus results.
“There isn’t a clear consensus winner in Iowa, and that means candidates are going to be spending time and money attacking each other well into the next several months,” she said. “The split results create the appearance of a party not yet united.”
Bystrom said that Santorum’s caucus popularity may not translate into success down the road. Santorum “lacks a strong national organization outside of Iowa, and it will hurt him going forward,” Bystrom said.
A.J. Spiker, an Iowa coordinator for Ron Paul, who finished third, said Romney and Paul are the only two candidates to leave Iowa with national organizations and strong financial backing in place.
“And I don’t think Iowa voters were shown very much about Santorum’s voting record,” Spiker said.
While he served as a congressman and senator, Spiker said, Santorum “voted to restrict gun rights, and he endorsed (former Pennsylvania U.S. Sen.) Arlen Specter over a more conservative candidate, Pat Toomey.”
“He wasn’t vetted in Iowa like Newt Gingrich was,” Spiker said.
Bob Zientara is a reporter for the Ames (IA) Tribune. He can be reached at rzientara@amestrib.com Staff writer Laura Millsaps also contributed to this report.