LITTLE ROCK — Twenty-four touchdown passes vs. six interceptions, 277 completions, and a completion percentage of 63.2 would be a good 2012 for Arkansas quarterback Tyler Wilson.
Those are his numbers from 2011 and there are no guarantees that personal stats improve with age.
Arkansas fans exhaled when Wilson decided to return to Arkansas for his senior season. After one year as a starter, Wilson did what many NFL draft-eligible players do and filed paperwork to get feedback on his status. The deadline was Sunday and, on Friday, even Wilson’s dad thought Wilson might pass on his final year of college eligibility.
Once the All-Southeastern Conference quarterback said he would again be a Razorback, fans began speculating about the possibility of improving on 11-2.
The departure of Joe Adams and Jarius Wright, in particular, must be considered when projecting Wilson’s 2012 production.
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Ask Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck about 2011 after losing his top three receivers from 2010 or Oklahoma quarterback Landry Jones about his completion percentage of 54 percent or less in three of the four games after Ryan Broyles was injured.
Adams is a playmaker, somebody who can make a long gain out of a short pass. Wright is reliable and productive. Both of them, along with Greg Childs, have been in Bobby Petrino’s system since he arrived at Arkansas.
They will be missed.
Increased production is expected from wide receiver Cobi Hamilton and under-sized tight end Chris Gragg, who caught a total of 75 passes this year. Others will get an opportunity.
Wilson’s numbers, particularly attempts and completions, could decline if the return of Knile Davis improves the running game. In 2011, Arkansas attempted 471 passes and ran the ball 412 times. In 2010, when Davis led all SEC running backs with 1,322 yards, he had 204 carries. This year, Dennis Johnson led Arkansas in rushing with 670 yards and had only 106 carries while sharing time with Ronnie Wingo and Broderick Green.
Aware of Mel Kiper Jr.’s projection that Wilson would be the No. 3 quarterback if he entered the NFL draft, I was still surprised that feedback from the NFL was positive to the point that it gave Wilson pause, something Wilson alluded to in his statement.
He also said that after the bowl game, “some scenarios played out where I thought I’d have an opportunity to go higher in this year’s draft than originally thought.”
Apparently, he was referring to decisions by USC’s Matt Barkley and Oklahoma’s Landry Jones to stay in school. Maybe the quarterback evaluations broke the same way as the team rankings — that Luck and Rober Griffin III were at the top and that Ryan Tannehill, Nick Foles, Wilson, and Kirk Cousins were interchangeable just as Alabama and LSU were the best and that Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Oregon, USC were next.
Wilson’s decision does not mean he will be the No. 1 quarterback picked in 2013. Already, Barkley is being hyped. Jones will be around along with West Virginia’s Geno Smith, Virginia Tech’s Logan Thomas, and others.
Davis did not mention NFL feedback in his statement about his return and it is unlikely that he received much encouragement from the NFL considering that Wisconsin’s Monte Ball was told he would not be picked until the third round. Ball, who opted to stay in school, received that report card after a season in which he scored 39 touchdowns and was a Heisman Trophy finalist. Davis last played in 2010.
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Harry King is sports columnist for Stephens Media’s Arkansas News Bureau. His email address is hking@arkansasnews.com.