LITTLE ROCK — Unexpectedly, the number of SEC teams in the NCAA Tournament matters.
Once Marshawn Powell was removed from the Arkansas lineup in November, the Razorbacks figured to go 6-10 or 7-9 in conference play. Eight-eight was the max and the NIT was the hoped-for goal. Only eternal optimists would dare mention the NCAA Tournament.
Lo and behold, halfway through SEC play, Arkansas is one of at least three teams in contention for what would be the league’s fifth spot in the NCAA Tournament. The SEC, the fourth best basketball conference in most power rankings, had five representatives in the NCAA last year.
For the sake of this argument, some assumptions were necessary. No question, Kentucky and Florida are home free. Include Mississippi State and Vanderbilt, even though each is only 5-3 in the league, and eliminate LSU and Tennessee, both at 3-5.
That done, we are left with Arkansas, Alabama, and Ole Miss at 4-4. The Crimson Tide squared up the trio by beating Ole Miss in double overtime Saturday night in Tuscaloosa. Ironically, the game between two teams that dote on half-court offense was won when Andrew Steele picked up a loose ball and threw in a jump shot in the final minute.
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With eight league games remaining, it is impossible to compare the schedules of the Arkansas, Alabama, and Ole Miss and say flat-out that the advantage belongs to one or the other.
Arkansas is 0-4 on the road while Alabama and Ole Miss are 1-3, a perfect segue to the Razorbacks’ game on Wednesday night at Georgia. Both the Crimson Tide and the Rebels won at Athens, putting the onus on the Razorbacks to keep pace.
A W is likely if the Razorbacks continue to compete hard and take care of the ball better than they did at Baton Rouge. If that happens, they will end the week at 6-4.
Although Arkansas must win a game or two away from Fayetteville to finish above .500 in conference play, defense of the home court is vital. During the next four weeks, the Razorbacks have both Alabama and Ole Miss in Fayetteville. They also have a home game against Florida and a victory over the Gators would enhance a resume that begins with Ws over Mississippi State, Michigan, and Vanderbilt.
Like Arkansas, Alabama has a home game with Florida. Like Arkansas, Alabama has already played Kentucky and Vanderbilt. On the other hand, Ole Miss lost a home game to Florida and still has games against both Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
Tonight, Alabama could get a leg up on the other two by winning at Auburn. By the same token, Ole Miss is the one most likely to immediately fall below .500 with a game at Mississippi State on Thursday night.
All three coaches understand this is a monthlong quest.
Many of the remaining games will turn on a possession or two, maybe a turnover or a made 3 or a miss on the front end of a one and one.
Arkansas has lost three SEC games by eight points or less; Alabama has lost three by six or less, and Ole Miss has lost three by four or less, including two in double overtime.
More than likely, the SEC’s fifth representative in the NCAA Tournament will be settled March 9 when one of the trio advances to the semifinals of the league tournament.
Meanwhile, enjoy the fact that eight games deep in conference play, the Razorbacks and NCAA Tournament are in the same sentence.
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Harry King is sports columnist for Stephens Media’s Arkansas News Bureau. His email address is hking@arkansasnews.com.