LITTLE ROCK — For now, the future shade of Arkansas’ political landscape is in the eye of the beholder.
Voters will decide in November whether Arkansas’ emerging Republican Party will capture all four U.S.
House seats and control of the Legislature as the state GOP chairman predicts, or if the Republican Party’s gains in 2010 were a one-time phenomenon, as the state Democratic party leader says.
In an interview last week, state Republican Party Chairman Doyle Webb said that after the May 22 primary
election he is more certain than ever that Republicans are positioned to paint the state red.
Independent reporting for Pine Bluff & Jefferson County since 1879.
“The primary did nothing but help us,” he said.
State Democratic Party Chairman Will Bond said a race-by-race analysis shows Democrats are positioned to maintain or improve on their majorities in the Legislature. He said the party has good candidates in all four U.S. House districts, and “we’re very excited about the 1st District.”
In that district, freshman Republican congressman Rick Crawford of Jonesboro will face a challenge from either state Rep. Clark Hall of Marvell or Prosecutor Scott Ellington of Jonesboro, who are headed to a June 12 runoff for the Democratic nomination.
Ellington won 49.5 percent of the vote in the Democratic primary, according to unofficial election results, coming close to an outright win. Last week, Hall began hammering Ellington over a credit company’s lawsuit against Ellington’s wife over thousands of dollars in paid bills, as well as two tax liens that were filed against Ellington in 2010.
Ellington has said his wife is fighting the credit card company over hidden fees. He previously disclosed the liens, which have been removed.
Webb noted that Crawford outstripped Ellington and Hall in fundraising and said the incumbent is in a strong position to win re-election because of “the weakness of the two Democrats that are in the runoff, their inability to raise funds and their inability to identify with the people of the 1st District.”
During redistricting last year, the 1st District was redrawn to add three counties in southeastern Arkansas that traditionally vote Democratic.
Bond said the Democratic nominee will have a good chance to defeat Crawford, who, like the other Republican members of the Arkansas delegation, “voted to end Medicaid as we know it (and) voted to return non-military discretionary spending at the federal level to an amount that would be a pre-World War II amount.”
The 4th District seat, currently the only U.S. House seat held by an Arkansas Democrat, is up for grabs because of incumbent Mike Ross’ decision not to seek re-election.
In a decisive primary victory, Republican Tom Cotton received 57.5 percent of the vote against challengers Beth Anne Rankin and John Cowart to avoid a runoff while state Sen. Gene Jeffress of Louann and lawyer Q. Byrum Hurst of Hot Springs must face each other in a June 12 Democratic runoff.
Cotton, of Dardanelle, showed himself to be the strongest fundraiser ahead of the primary, raising more $1 million for the race.
“I think that that (general election) race has been decided,” Webb said. “The people in the 4th District like Tom Cotton, they like what he has to say, what he represents, and they feel that he will represent them well.”
Webb dismissed Jeffress and Hurst as “two very weak candidates who have not been able to raise any money, that are not catching fire with the constituency down there.”
Bond said Cotton received a large portion of his funds from out of state, which he said was telling. He said Jeffress and Hurst have deep roots in Arkansas, whereas Cotton, an Arkansas native and Iraq and Afghanistan war veteran, recently moved from Washington back to Arkansas “and is trying to tell people they should send him to back to Washington to fix it.”
Looking at legislative races, Webb said Democratic incumbents likely to lose seats this year include Rep. Leslee Milam Post of Ozark, a freshman who won her seat in 2010 after her Republican opponent was ruled ineligible.
“The only reason she got in there was by default,” Webb said.
Webb also predicted defeat for Sen. Steve Harrelson, D-Texarkana.
Harrelson made headlines last year after police were called to the home of his ex-wife in response to a fight between Harrelson and a male friend of his ex-wife. No charges were filed, and the incident did not stop Harrelson from defeating Rep. Larry Cowling of Foreman in the Democratic primary with 54.7 percent of the vote.
Bond said Post and Harrelson have proven themselves as legislators and he expects them to win re-election.
Republican incumbents likely to lose their seats in November, in Bond’s view, include:
—Rep. Loy Mauch of Bismarck, who has called Abraham Lincoln a war criminal, praised John Wilkes Booth and filed a bill that would require the public to be notified if mood-altering drugs are placed in the water supply.
—Rep. Jon Hubbard of Jonesboro, who had filed bills to require presidential candidates to show a birth certificate to get on the ballot in Arkansas and to require all state publications to be in English only.
—Sen. Jason Rapert, who has filed a resolution calling for a U.S. constitutional convention to amend the Constitution to ban raising the federal debt ceiling unless a majority of state legislatures approve.
“Our candidates in each particular district are qualified, responsible, respected people who are willing to work with Gov. (Mike) Beebe to continue the progress that he’s made, versus many Republican candidates who are extreme,” Bond said.
Webb said that if Republican candidates seem extreme to Democrats, it is because the Democratic Party has moved to the left.
“They have supported the liberal policies of President Barack Obama, they have been enablers of Obamacare. … The people of Arkansas don’t like those policies and don’t want the people in office that enable those policies,” Webb said.
The general election will be Nov. 6.