LITTLE ROCK — Republican 4th District congressional candidates Tom Cotton and Beth Anne Rankin are dead even with about a month to go until the May 22 GOP primary, according to a new poll released Wednesday.
Cotton of Dardanelle, and Rankin of Magnolia, each garnered 38.5 percent in the poll commissioned by Talk Business Research and Hendrix College.
The poll included an April 17 telephone survey of 542 likely Republican voters in the district that stretches from the Delta, across the southern tier of counties to the northwestern part of the state. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.2 percent.
A third GOP candidate, John Cowart of Genoa, was supported by 4 percent of respondents, while 19 percent said they didn’t know who they would vote for in the race.
“The battle for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Congress in Arkansas’ 4th District is an absolute dead heat with the top two candidates – Rankin and Cotton – significantly short of the majority necessary to avoid a runoff,” said Hendrix College political science professor Jay Barth, who helped craft the questions.
Independent reporting for Pine Bluff & Jefferson County since 1879.
Barth said poll data also show Cotton and Rankin each have a slight advantage based on gender.
“Only a small gap shows itself in the race with Rankin leading marginally among women and Cotton ahead slightly among men,” he said.
Rankin was the GOP nominee in the 4th District race in 2010 and lost to incumbent Rep. Mike Ross, D-Prescott, 58 percent to 40 percent.
Ross is not seeking re-election this year.
Rankin, a businesswoman, raised about $127,000 during the first quarter of 2012, and she has raised about $378,000 since her campaign began last year.
Cotton, an attorney and farmer, raised more than $352,000 during the first quarter of 2012. He has raised about $890,000 overall.
Cowart, a former Marine, has raised $22,984, according to documents filed with the Federal Election Commission.
Democrats seeking the 4th District congressional seat are Q. Bynum Hurst of Hot Springs, state Sen. Gene Jeffress of Louann and D.C. Morrison of Little Rock.
The poll also showed respondents were split on whether former Gov. Mike Huckabee’s endorsement of a candidate in the Republican race would influence their vote. Fifty percent said it would and 50 percent said it would not make any difference.
Huckabee has endorsed Rankin, who was on his staff when he was Arkansas governor.